With just a handful of games left to go in the 2018 season, let’s take a look at the division matchups and project the winners in each league division.
USA League
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LAD
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*Yawn* Let’s see…who’s on top in the USA Latitude divison? Oh, what a surprise…the Azua Tortugas. The nigh-unstoppable juggernauts of the WBH are once again headed for the championships, with a 12 game lead over 2nd place Mariel - a good team, unfairly stigmatized by the fact Azua is a much, much better team. Azua outclasses the competition in every offensive and defensive category, and is a lock to make the championships.
LOD
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After a brief span of time in the early season where it appeared Caracas was the clear favorite, San Lorenzo shook the May doldrums and Caracas suffered an 11-16 June record (during which time their GM disappeared under mysterious circumstances). As a result, the San Lorenzo Legends, led by one of the highest run-producing middle-of-the-order lineups in all of baseball, are again the tops in the LOD, with the Cartel a distant 8 games behind.
PREDICTION:
LAD: Azua
LOD: San Lorenzo
Japan League
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LAD
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To give a little perspective on the dangers of writing prediction articles like this one, if I’d have written this article a week ago, I’d have been talking about the Tokorozawa Arsenal as the favorites atop the Japan LAD with Bocas del Toro and Santiago de Cuba playing catch-up two games behind. Then, Tokorozawa lost six in a row and Santiago de Cuba went 5-1 in the same time period. As a result, Santiago de Cuba vaulted to the top of the standings and left the other two three games behind them. To say the least, the results of this race are going to be hard to predict…
There are truly no clear favorites in this race - all teams have critical flaws that make it hard to project a victor. Santiago de Cuba is a team bouncing back from a horrible 12-16 July to go 8-3 in August, thanks to some uncharacteristically good pitching performances (3.18 runs given up per game since August 1st). Their starting pitching is suspect (4.38 team ERA among starters) and their offensive production doesn’t compare favorably to either of the other two rivals. Bocas del Toro boasts the division’s best offense (.799 team OPS, led by MVP-candidate LF Salvador Estrada, who’s belting a personal 1.102 OPS) but apart from SP Aimon Garcia, SP Hirohisa Murakami, or CL Kunihiko Yamakoshi, the pitching is everything from inconsistent to downright terrible.
As for Tokorozawa, they look good on paper, but when you look at the players you can see where they were due for a crash. Statistically they lead all rivals in team pitching categories, yet they have two of the most ineffective starting pitchers in any league (Raul Cajivat and Carlos Bustamanta) as their #4 and #5 starters — these two both have ERA well above 6.00 and have combined for a total 10-16 record in 31 starts (only 9 of which were quality starts). Offensively, they lead the league in home runs with 112, but comparitavely they struggle to get wood on a good pitch, a contributing factor to their horrible record against the more pitching-gifted LOD teams (15-25).
The truth is, out of the three teams in contention, the team that comes closest to the definition of the term “consistently dominant” would have to be Tokorozawa. They’re not good, but they’re good enough. Santiago de Cuba has series vs. Maracaibo and Barquisimento coming up (both of which are better teams) followed by head-to-heads within the division, which history points to the Rough Riders losing more than winning. Bocas del Toro likewise has not matched well vs. Tokorozawa and does not have a pitching core that you can safely bet on. The edge goes to Tokorozawa; but don’t bet money on them you don’t mind losing.
LOD
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Both by record and by actual talent, the LOD have the #1 and #2 teams in the entire league in Maracaibo and Barquisimeto. And while the Obeliscos outclass all four teams in the Latitude Division, they are an order less magnitude than the Maracaibo Jackals, who share the honor of being tied with Azua for the best record in the WBH (65-29), 12 games ahead of the Obeliscos. With not nearly enough time left in the season to catch up, the O’s will have to be content playing the role of spoiler for the LAD race, as they play 3-game series with Tokorozawa and Santiago de Cuba this week, which will help make or break each one’s chances to make it to the finals.
PREDICTION:
LAD: Tokorozawa
LOD: Maracaibo
Cuba League
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LAD
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The Xi’an Kylin sit atop the division at 54-41, with the Seoul Warlords four games behind, and the Santurce de Cangrejeros only five games behind. Though numerically Seoul and Santurce are within striking distance of the top spot, Xi’an has been playing consistently good baseball, while both Seoul and Santurce have had losing records since July and are both playing worse now than they were at the start of the season. Neither team is carrying momentum into the last few weeks of play, which points to the strong possibility Xi’an will take the division championship.
LOD
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From the start of the season, the race has been a tight showdown between the Mao Dadaistas and the Taegu Black Bears, two very evenly matched teams. Only two games separate the two teams, who have gone an even 9-9 against each other in division play. The next week of interleague play will be critical in determining the winner; Mao is up against division rivals they have struggled against all year (the Xi’an Kylin, the Santurce de Cangrejeros, and the Toa Baja Coquis, which combined they have a 12-17 record against) while Taegu draws a much better schedule (Seoul, Santurce de, and Toa Baja, of whom they have a 15-14 record). Mao and Taegu could very well find themselves tied by this time next week, at which point the head-to-head matchup becomes all important.
In this race, I like Taegu a little better than Mao. Mao has slightly stronger bats, but a very shallow pitching depth that is teetering a little too close to breakdown. Taegu is a well-balanced team that is well-capable of going into overdrive and sneaking past Mao.
PROBABILITY
LAD: Xi’an
LOD: Taegu
Dominican Republic League
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LAD
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At the start of this season, Balboa appeared to be the team of destiny in the LAD. Then, two disasters happened. The Pacora Jaguars put together an incredible 21-6 run in the month of June, which Balboa answered with a 9-19 month of July. As a result, Balboa now sits nine games behind Pacora, out of the running for the title this year. At least Balboa will have SP Cristo Cabrera (16-2 2.03 ERA) to cheer for in the MVP awards in the offseason, and plenty of time to figure out what to do about their team .337 OBP and their 36-44 record versus right-handed pitching.
LOD
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It is the year of the Devil Chickens. The Tocumen Pollo Diablo are the only team in the LOD that the word “punching bag” doesn’t apply to in the LOD - all other teams currently have far lower win totals than 4th place Hiroshima in the LAD. The Bani Banshees have turned their season around and have a 22-17 record since July 1st, but at a total 44-50 record, they’re still a distant second with 12 games separating them from Tocumen.
PREDICTION:
LAD: Pacora
LOD: Tocumen
South Korea League
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LAD
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The Asahikawa Green Guild are the dominant figures of the LAD this year, with a 59-36 record, eight games ahead of second place Detroit. Though the Green Guild’s offense hasn’t been particularly stellar (a division-worst .258 team BA and .731 team OPS) they made up for it with timely run production and stellar starter and bullpen pitching. Detroit has no chance to make up the defecit at this point in the season.
LOD
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Much like the Japan League LOD, the South Korea LOD features a scrum of three teams, all within four games of each other, that are each flawed in their own way and…dare I say it…not particularly good. The current favorite is Cheju (48-47), who led big early in the season but who has fallen hard since July and allowed Suwon to charge up to two games behind (46-49). San Juan shouldn’t even be under consideration after going 9-19 in the month of June, but due to the relative weakness of the rest of the division stands a mere 4 games away from Cheju’s top spot (44-51).
Realistically, San Juan stands almost no chance. Cheju and Suwon have both kicked the fool out of them in divsion play, and should certainly continue to do so in the upcoming division matchup series. That leaves the real battle between Cheju and Suwon, which I give to Cheju for two reasons:
1. Cheju has a better overall record vs. the remaining division opponents: in particular, Cheju has dog-whipped the Erie Sea Wolves to the tune of 13-5, while Suwon’s record is a mere 9-9.
2. Suwon has a week of interleague play coming up with a number of teams that have dominated them this season: Asahikawa, Detroit, and Jeonju.
With this in mind, the prospect of Suwon picking up two games on Cheju before the end of the season seem pretty slim.
PREDICTION:
LAD: Asahikawa
LOD: Cheju
Venezuela League
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LAD
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What was shaping up to be a two-man race between Tokyo and Moca this year suddenly turned a different direction in the month of July, when Moca took a 10-18 nose-dive at the same time Panama City went 20-8. The race is still a two-man race, only now with Tokyo on top and Panama City a mere 1 game behind. The Moca Machine sits six games back and likely will be relegated to making mocha for whoever wins.
Though it’s hard to understand how a team as strong as Tokyo can be overtaken, the smart money is on Panama City to win it all. Since July the Bull Moose have been a much better team, putting up better run production than the Tankui and matching them in the pitching department. It bears mentioning that not only do the Bull Moose have a 10-8 record against Tokyo, but also in the last six games played against them, they’ve gone 5-1. In short, this is a team with serious momentum, and it’s not a fluke, it’s because they’re really that good.
LOD
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The story of the Venezeula LOD so far has been Vertientes Fumadores all the way, with Oaxaca Nueve Garras de Jaguar always close behind but rarely threatening to overtake them. It’s hard to imagine two teams that are more evenly matched than these two…head to head matchups sit 10-8 in Oaxaca’s favor, and both teams have been consistently good all season. Despite being a game down, the slight edge goes to Oaxaca. The bulk of the remaining games are division games, and they have a winning record against all of them (including Vertientes). The Achilles heel of Oaxaca in this scenario is offense (.256 team batting average is a division low) and they currently have both SS Virisimo Petronilho and RF Adelmo Segobiano in pretty nasty hitting slumps. They may need some breakout performances at the plate if they want to avoid fading in the stretch.
PREDICTION:
LAD: Panama City
LOD: Oaxaca Nueve
Canada League
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LAD
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It’s a free for all in the LAD, with Changsha and Hukouka tied for 1st, and Beijing and Hamilton within striking distance at 4 games and 5 games out respectively. The balance of power in this division has been hard to read all season, with no team ever really holding a decisive grip on the top spot. How to handicap this race? Let’s start in reverse order.
First, Hamilton. Although they are only five games out of first, they also have three teams they need to vault over in their division, and their chances of doing this are almost negligible, especially since they’re not showing any signs of late-season surging. Beijing is harder to dismiss; after a lackluster first two months, they’ve gone 23-17 since July 1st. Both Changsha and Hukuoka have had similar momentum to Beijing; both teams have 24-16 records in July. So with all three teams playing great baseball, let’s analyze by looking at the remaining schedules and project winners based on previous records.
Changsha
1 vs. Vancouver (3-8 record) (0-1)
3 vs. Kitchener (6-3 record) (2-1)
3 vs. Edmonton (7-2 record) (3-0)
6 vs. Hukuoka (8-10 record) (2-4)
6 vs. Beijing (11-7 record) (4-2)
6 vs. Hamilton (10-8 record) (3-3)
Projected W-L Record: 65-55
Hukuoka
1 vs. Hongkong (7-4 record) (1-0)
3 vs. Edmonton (7-2 record) (3-0)
3 vs. Kitchener (5-4 record) (2-1)
6 vs. Hamilton (10-8 record) (3-3)
6 vs. Beijing (7-11 record) (2-4)
6 vs. Changsha (10-8 record) (4-2)
Project W-L Record: 66-54
Beijing
1 vs. Kitchener (6-5 record) (1-0)
3 vs. Vancouver (3-6 record) (1-2)
3 vs. Hong Kong (6-3 record) (2-1)
6 vs. Hukuoka (11-7 record) (4-2)
6 vs. Changsha (7-11 record) (2-4)
6 vs. Hamilton (9-9 record) (3-3)
Projected W-L Record: 60-60
Two conclusions you can draw from these projections is that Beijing doesn’t appear to stand much of a change, and the battle between Changsha and Hukuoka will likely go to whoever comes out ahead in the remaining six games. Hukuoka has a slight edge with a 10-8 record versus Changsha. The last three games of the season will be between these two, and chances are good the deciding game will be one of these three.
LOD
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Vancouver sits atop the league at 60-35, an extremely comfortable 15 games ahead of 2nd place Kitchener. The Venture Brothers can relax and wait for the championships.
PREDICTION
LAD: Hukuoka
LOD: Vancouver
Panama League
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LAD
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It’s been a dogfight between Nagasaki and Arraijan all season, with Nagasaki taking an early-season lead, and the Chaos Titans surging mid-season, only to fade and allow the Blues to pull even. Arraijan now stands 2 games ahead of Nagasaki after a strong 5-1 week last week, but still has an uphill battle to take the title, for two big reasons:
1. Six games left vs. Nagasaki, who have owned them all season (11-7).
2. A number of injuries to key Chaos Titans, notably star 2B Frank Nargas, which leaves them without a true 2B in their depth chart. 3B Ricardo Sanatillan has been pressed into duty, but has no experience on that side of the infield — regardless, he’s no substitute for Nargas at the plate, who was leading the team with a .316 batting average.
The Blues have their own key injuries to deal with, with SP Vasco Maradiaga still recovering from early-season surgery and star SP Ho-Win Shi out at least one more week with shoulder tendinitis. Shi should be back in time for the head-to-head matchup vs. Arraijan, however, which increases the chances Nagasaki will gain ground on Arraijan in head-to-head play. This should be one of the must-watch races of the season.
LOD
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Up until recently, the Ciudad Bolivar Liberators were a lock to take the LOD. But a recent upsurge by Bonao finds the two teams only 4 games apart, thanks in part to Bonao taking two out of three in last week’s series vs. the Liberators. The two teams have six games left to play versus each other, but have pretty much equal-strength schedules for the remaining 26 games, which is bad news for Bonao.
Bonao has the momentum and has also had the upper hand on head-to-head matchups with the Liberators (10-8 record), but at this stage of the game, it’ll take both a strong surge from the Bananas and a colossal choke by the Liberators to give the fans in Bonao their dreamed-of championship. Hope for the “choke” outcome may be coming in the form of a season ending injury to the closest thing Ciudad Bolivar has to a lights-out pitcher, SP Gerardo Avilar (8-6, 3.17 ERA). This injury certainly places some pressure on the already shallow starting pitching depth on the Liberator squad…on the other hand, their winning ways haven’t had anything to do with a pitcher’s mound (4.20 Team ERA; .826 team OPS…you do the math).
PREDICTION:
LAD: Nagasaki
LOD: Ciudad Bolivar
Puerto Rico League
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LAD
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Three teams are in contention in the Puerto Rico League: Busan, Cabo Rojo, and Roswell. Busan has led the division all season, with superior pitching and above-average hitting. Cabo Rojo, however, has never been far behind, and fields a team very similar in profile to Busan’s Burning Dragons (slightly better offense and bullpen, slightly worse starting pitching). Cabo sits just two games behind Busan after going 5-1 last week. Roswell, who boasts the strongest offensive lineup in the LAD (team .741 OPS, 455 total runs scored) has trailed both Cabo and Busan all season, but has since surged with a 23-17 record since the month of July (compare that to Busan’s 20-20 record and Cabo Rojo’s 21-19 record). All things being equal, this points to Busan being a team on the decline and Roswell & Cabo Rojo to be teams on the upswing, so this race could belong to anyone.
With no critical injuries hampering any of the three teams, one can look at the team vs. team records for teams’ remaining schedules to project a winner:
Busan
1 vs. Osan (7-4 record) (1-0)
3 vs. Thunder Bay (7-2 record) (3-0)
3 vs. Incheon (7-2 record) (3-0)
6 vs. cabo Rojo (9-9 record) (3-3)
6 vs. Roswell (10-8 record) (4-2)
6 vs. Victoria de las Tunes (11-7 record) (4-2)
Projected W-L Record: 73-47
Cabo Rojo
1 vs. Thunder Bay (7-4 record) (1-0)
3 vs. Osan (5-4 record) (2-1)
3 vs. Bayamon (4-5 record) (1-2)
6 vs. Busan (9-9 record) (3-3)
6 vs. Victoria de las Tunes (13-5 record) (5-1)
6 vs. Roswell (9-9 record) (3-3)
Projected W-L Record: 68-52
Roswell
1 vs. Bayamon (5-6 record) (0-1)
3 vs. Incheon (4-5 record) (1-2)
3 vs. Thunder Bay (5-4 record) (2-1)
6 vs. Victoria de Las Tunes (12-6 record) (4-2)
6 vs. Busan (8-10 record) (2-4)
6 vs. Cabo Rojo (9-9 record) (3-3)
Projected W-L Record: 63-57
These projections point to Busan as the clear choice for winning the title. They have the easiest remaining schedule, being the only one of the three who doesn’t have to face giant-killing Bayamon in interleague play anymore, and proven winning records against all remaining teams (except for Cabo Rojo). Cabo Rojo or Roswell still stand a chance, but their fate is in Busan’s hands. If they underachieve vs. Thunder Bay and Incheon next week, they leave ample room for an upset in head-to-head play with Cabo or Roswell.
LOD
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The Osan Flying Squid have been the dominant figures in the LOD all season, a point they emphasized by turning on the afterburners and going 22-7 in the month of July, putting six games’ distance between themselves and rival Incheon. At 53-42, Incheon has put together a respectable season, and had their own mercurial record for the month of July (18-11) but haven’t showed the necessary momentum to jump over Osan, who lead them in most team offensive and defensive stats.
PREDICTION:
LAD: Busan
LOD: Osan
Mexico League
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LAD
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Valencia has been juicing the competition all season, peeling them, sqeezing them, and beating them to a pulp. And now I’m all out of orange juice metaphors.
Valencia has outclassed the Mexican LAD in both hitting and pitching, and carries a decisive 39-12 record vs. LAD opponents this year. This race is over.
LOD
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As uninteresting as the race is in LAD, the LOD is shaping up to be a nail-biter. The Tijuana Grasshoppers and the Toluca Toucans are tied for first with 55-39 records, and the Monterrery Alacranes are a mere three games behind. Their records correctly indicate these teams are equally matched, in terms of their head-to-head records:
Tijuana vs. Toluca: 10-8 (Tijuana’s favor)
Tijuana vs. Monterrey: 12-6 (Tijuana’s favor)
Toluca vs. Monterrey: 7-8 (Monterrey’s favor)
Tip your hat to Tijuana, then, in terms of who’s the better team in head-to-head competition. But all three teams have inflated win totals as a result of facing much weaker teams in the LAD during interleague play. The X factor here has always been, and will continue to be, how well they do versus the weaker opponents, and so the balance of the remaining schedule weighs heavily in determining the future. Here’s a rundown of each team, along with their season record vs. that team and, projected from that record, the expected W-L records:
Tijuana
2 vs. Cienfuegos (7-3 record) (2-0)
3 vs. Valencia (3-6 record) (1-2)
9 vs. Chihuahua (6-9 record) (3-6)
6 vs. Monterrey (12-6 record) (4-2)
6 vs. Toluca (10-8 record) (4-2)
Projected W-L record: 69-51
Toluca:
2 vs. Cancun Mojitos (8-2 record) (2-0)
3 vs. Nuevo Laredo (5-4 record) (2-1)
9 vs. Monterrey (7-8 record) (4-5)
6 vs. Chihuahua (12-6 record) (4-2)
6 vs. Tijuana (8-10 record) (2-4)
Projected W-L record: 69-51
Monterrey:
2 vs. Nuevo Laredo (6-4 record) (1-1)
3 vs. Cancun (8-2 record) (2-0)
9 vs. Toluca (8-7 record) (5-4)
6 vs. Tijuana (6-12 record) (2-4)
6 Vs. Chihuahua (10-8 record) (4-2)
Projected W-L record: 66-54
From this we can conclude Tijuana holds a slight edge overall. A tie with Toluca at the top of the standings would give Tijuana the title because of head-to-head records. Toluca could easily take the title with strong performances against Tijuana and Monterrey. Monterrey, too, could blow out Toluca and Tijuana in head-to-head play and take it all, although this seems less likely than Toluca doing it at this point.
PREDICTION:
LAD: Valencia
LOD: Tijuana
China League
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LAD
The top two teams in the LAD are both fantastic in their own right: Wuhan, with an amazing 3.02 team ERA and a bullpen with 27 relief wins & combined 2.30 ERA; and La Habana, with a starting lineup that would be the envy of any team (.288 team AVG; 7 out of 9 starters hitting above .290 for the season). The upper hand has been Wuhan’s, whose lineup, while inferior to La Habana’s, has been good enough to lean on its stellar pitching staff for its success.
Nevertheless, La Habana is knocking at Wuhan’s door, surging in August with an 8-3 record (vs. Wuhan’s 6-5) to sneak up to within 5 games. Sadly, this appears to be too little, too late, as it would take a Wuhan collapse at this point to change La Habana’s fate, and it just doesn’t seem likely.
LOD
It’s been the year of the Rally Cat. Rizao sits atop the division with the only winning record (58-37) and 13 games separating them from Lhasa. Their magic number sits at an easily attainable 13, which they should meet in a couple weeks, at which point all that’s left to do is keep everyone healthy for the championships.
PREDICTION:
LAD: Wuhan
LOD: Rizao